Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Brexit = Y2K?

Expect markets to do the opposite of what the experts tell you. Except maybe the Pound, which should decline, but it becomes a buy wherever it troughs. 

Think about the undercarriage of the Brexit vote. Britain has just removed a level of government. Each level of government has a cost. 

Canada and the EU have not been able to finalize their trade deal. I would bet England makes free trade agreement with other Common Law nations before the EU can. Again BUY THE POUND AFTER THE TROUGH.

England may rid itself of Scotland and Northern Ireland (areas that receive more government revenue than they contribute) making England stronger. London, like Zurich, are both outside the EU. Both are the European money centres. Will finance go to Frankfurt? No. London will get stronger. England with out the UK (Scotland and Northern Ireland) will be the new Switzerland. Let the Pound decline, but get ready to buy English/London stocks.

Gold made its blow off top. It could not hold its break out number. Gold should correct before going higher.
Oil did not break down during the Brexit stress so the bull has not ended. Target of $72 still in place.
US stocks did not break support. Expect more money into the US. DOW of 20,000 still in place.

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